Kilode ti Orilẹ-ede Iṣọnju kii Ṣe Agbegbe Tuntun ti Ilera Ilera
Afikun ni owo nyara ti awọn ọja ati awọn iṣẹ ni akoko pupọ.
Afikun ni ipa aye rẹ nipa dida agbara agbara rẹ. O jẹ iwọnwọn ti ibanujẹ nitori pe o mu ki iye owo ifiwe . Ni akoko pupọ, o dinku igbekele ti igbega rẹ . Eyi ni idi ti Aare Reagan fi sọ pe, "Afikun jẹ iwa-ipa bi ọgbẹ, bi ibanujẹ bi ọlọpa ti ologun, ati bi apaniyan bi ọkunrin ti o buruju."
Gẹgẹbi awọn ifarahan ti iṣowo-owo, awọn alainiṣẹ ṣe ifihan kan ihamọ . Awọn ifihan agbara fifuye pe ipin-ẹgbẹ imugboroja n ṣiṣẹda o ti nkuta. Awọn iwe ibanujẹ yẹ ki o han nigbati aje ba n ṣiṣẹ ju lọra tabi ju sare.
Orilẹ-ede Iṣọnṣe ni Iṣuna Iṣowo
Iṣowo ti o ni ilera yoo gbe akojọ ti nṣiṣero laarin laarin 6-7 ogorun. Oṣuwọn idiyele ti o pọju jẹ 2-3 ogorun. Lati ṣe eyi, awọn agbanisiṣẹ nilo lati wa awọn oṣiṣẹ ti o dara. Wọn nilo lati wo iye oṣuwọn ti alainiṣẹ lati 4-5 ogorun. Nigba ti oṣuwọn ti dinku ju eyi lọ, awọn ile-iṣẹ ko le rii awọn oṣiṣẹ to dara julọ lati mu iwọn iṣẹ pọ.
Bi abajade, idagba yoo fa fifalẹ.
Iṣowo aje kan tun nilo diẹ ninu afikun. Awọn ipinnu ifowopamọ Federal Reserve fun idiyele oṣuwọn afojusun ti 2 ogorun ọdun kan lori ọdun. Fed lo awọn oṣuwọn afikun afikun ti o yọ agbara ati iye owo ounje . Awọn iye owo naa jẹ iyipada , o ṣeun si iṣowo ojoojumọ nipasẹ awọn olutọpa ọja .
Ikọju iṣan laarin awọn 6-7 ogorun ifihan aje ti Goldilocks, pẹlu awọn ipo ilera ti afikun ati alainiṣẹ.
Atọka Itan Iṣọwọn nipa Ọdun
Onidowo Aṣayan Arthur Okun ṣẹda ibanujẹ irora ni ọdun 1970. O fẹ lati ṣe apejuwe awọn ipa ti o pọju alainiṣẹ alaiṣẹ ati giga ti o pọ ni akoko yẹn. Okun tun ṣẹda ofin Okun. O sọ pe fun gbogbo ipin ogorun pe alainiṣẹ ṣubu, gidi ọja orilẹ-ede nla ti o ga nipasẹ 3 ogorun. O ṣe apejuwe awọn aje laarin Ogun Agbaye II ati 1960.
Iwọn irora ti o tobi ju 20 ogorun lakoko Nla Ibanujẹ nitori pe aiṣedede alainiṣẹ ti jẹ giga. Ni ọdun 1944, awọn nọmba ibanujẹ tobi ju 20 ogorun nitori pe iṣowo naa jẹ giga. O fere to 20 ogorun ni 1979 ati 1980 bi abajade ti stagflation .
Niwon 1981, atọka ti ko ju 15 ogorun. Iyẹn jẹ nitori Fed ti di dara ni iṣakoso iṣowo . Awọn aṣoju ti a ti yàn ṣe imulo owo inawo fun igbadun lati pa alainiṣẹ labẹ iṣakoso. Laanu, wọn ti ṣẹda awọn aipe aipe-owo pataki lati ṣe bẹ. Awọn aipe ti o tobi julọ nipasẹ Aare ti wa lati ọdun 1980.
| Odun | Atọka Aṣiṣe | Alainiṣẹ | Afikun |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| 1930 | 2.3% | 8.7% | -6.4% |
| 1931 | 6.6% | 15.9% | -9.3% |
| 1932 | 13.3% | 23.6% | -10.3% |
| 1933 | 25.7% | 24.9% | 0.8% |
| 1934 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 1,5% |
| 1935 | 23.1% | 20.1% | 3.0% |
| 1936 | 18.3% | 16.9% | 1.4% |
| 1937 | 17.2% | 14.3% | 2.9% |
| 1938 | 16.2% | 19.0% | -2.8% |
| 1939 | 17.2% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| 1940 | 15.3% | 14.6% | 0.7% |
| 1941 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| 1942 | 13.7% | 4.7% | 9.0% |
| 1943 | 4.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| 1944 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| 1945 | 4.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 1946 | 22.0% | 3.9% | 18.1% |
| 1947 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 8.8% |
| 1948 | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| 1949 | 4.5% | 6.6% | -2.1% |
| 1950 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% |
| 1951 | 9.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% |
| 1952 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 1953 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| 1954 | 4.3% | 5.0% | -0.7% |
| 1955 | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| 1956 | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| 1957 | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 1958 | 8.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 1959 | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| 1960 | 8.0% | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| 1961 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| 1962 | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| 1963 | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| 1964 | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| 1965 | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| 1966 | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 1967 | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| 1968 | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| 1969 | 9.7% | 3.5% | 6.2% |
| 1970 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| 1971 | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| 1972 | 8.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| 1973 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 8.7% |
| 1974 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% |
| 1975 | 15.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% |
| 1976 | 12.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| 1977 | 13.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% |
| 1978 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| 1979 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% |
| 1980 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 12.5% |
| 1981 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| 1982 | 14.6% | 10.8% | 3.8% |
| 1983 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
| 1984 | 11.2% | 7.3% | 3.9% |
| 1985 | 10.8% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| 1986 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| 1987 | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| 1988 | 9.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% |
| 1989 | 10.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| 1990 | 12.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| 1991 | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| 1992 | 10.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| 1993 | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| 1994 | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| 1995 | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| 1996 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 1997 | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| 1998 | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 1999 | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| 2000 | 7.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| 2001 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| 2002 | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| 2003 | 7.6% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| 2004 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 2005 | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| 2006 | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| 2007 | 9.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| 2008 | 7.4% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 2009 | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% |
| 2010 | 10.8% | 9.3% | 1,5% |
| 2011 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| 2012 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.7% |
| 2013 | 8.2% | 6.7% | 1,5% |
| 2014 | 6.4% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| 2015 | 5.7% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| 2016 | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 2017 | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
Akiyesi: Awọn akọsilẹ gbogbo jẹ bi ti Kejìlá ni ọdun yẹn. Awọn oṣuwọn afikun ni Nọmba Iye Atọwo Iye Ọdun ọdun fun Kejìlá. Data jẹ lati Iṣọwo Itọsọna Afikun ati Awọn Ošuwọn Iṣẹ Ọṣẹ nipasẹ Ọdún .
Atọka Iṣọnṣe nipasẹ Aare
Aare Hoover ni iṣe ti o buru ju gẹgẹbi iṣiro ipọnju. Aare Roosevelt ni iṣẹ ti o dara julọ. Awọn mejeeji ti gbiyanju pẹlu Nla şuga. Awọn alakoso ijọba Democratic ṣe dara julọ ni idinku iṣẹ alainiṣẹ, lakoko ti awọn alakoso Republikani nṣe ifojusi diẹ sii lori fifun ikuna.
Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) Atilẹyin ipọnju naa wa lati iwọn 3.8 si 13.35 nitori ijamba ti iṣowo 1929, imuduro awọn iyẹwo Smoot-Hawley , ati awọn òkun Dust Bowl . Hoover ko ṣe iranlọwọ awọn ohun nipa gbigbe owo-ori.
Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945) Abala irora ti ṣubu lati 25.7 ogorun si 3.5 ogorun.
Ipade titun ti FDR , opin Dust Bowl, ati ibere Ogun Agbaye II pari iṣan naa. Ni 1944, adehun Bretton Woods ti wole. O rọpo bošewa goolu pẹlu dọla US. ipa lori afikun
Harry Truman (1945-1953). Ibẹrẹ iṣan bẹrẹ ni 4.1 ogorun, o dide si 22 ogorun lẹhin opin Ogun Agbaye II mu ni ipadasẹhin. Truman kọlu o si 4.5 ogorun pẹlu Ofin Iṣẹ ati Idaduro Iye. Nipa fifiranṣẹ ranṣẹ si Europe, Eto Marshall ṣe ipese fun awọn ẹru AMẸRIKA. Ni ọdun 1950, Ogun Koria ṣe iṣeduro, iṣeduro itọsi irora si 10.2 ogorun. Nipa opin igba ti Truman, ọrọ ti o ti jẹ ipalara ti lọ si 3.5 ogorun.
Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1962). Ipadasẹhin lẹhin opin Ogun Koria ṣe firanṣẹ itọnisọna irora si 5.2 ninu ogorun nigba ọdun akọkọ ti Eisenhower. O gbe si 8.1 ogorun nigbati igbasilẹ miiran ti buru. Iwọn ipọnju ti o ga julọ ran iranlowo John F. Kennedy lọwọ lori oludari alakoso ti o jẹ alakoso Richard Nixon.
John F. Kennedy (1961-1963). Kennedy dopin ipadasẹhin, ṣugbọn alainiṣẹ ti wa ni giga nipasẹ akoko ti a fi pa a ni 1963. Iwọn irora ti wa ni ayika 8.0 ogorun.
Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969). Johnson dinku itọka si 5.9 ninu ogorun ni ọdun 1965 pẹlu inawo lori Awujọ Nla ati Ogun Vietnam. Ṣugbọn o wa si 8.1 ogorun nipasẹ opin ọdun ti o gbẹhin ni ọfiisi.
Richard Nixon (1969-1974). Atọka naa lo soke si 11.7 ogorun nipasẹ opin ọdun 1970. Nixon ṣẹda Ofin Iṣẹ Oṣiṣẹ Pajawiri ati awọn iṣakoso owo idiyele lati dinku alainiṣẹ ati afikun. Dipo, o ṣẹda idamu nipasẹ fifọ idagbasoke. Afikun si dide bi Federal Reserve ṣe agbekalẹ awọn iyọọda anfani lati ṣakoso awọn afikun, lẹhinna o sọ wọn silẹ lati mu idagbasoke. Ti o ni awọn ajeji owo, ti o pa owo to ga. Ni ọdun 1973, awọn iṣiro ipọnju ti pọ si 13.6 ogorun. Nixon dopin bošewa goolu , eyiti o ṣe iṣeduro paapaa buru bi iye owo dola pọ. O pari ogun Vietnam, ṣugbọn o fi silẹ nitori iwadi iwadi Watergate.
Gerald Ford (1974-1977). Atọka naa lo soke si 19.5 ogorun lakoko ọdun akọkọ Nissan ti o ṣeun si iṣoro si irẹjẹ. Atọka naa ṣubu si 12.7 ogorun ni 1976 ni kete ti ipadasẹhin dopin.
Jimmy Carter (1977-1981). Atọka naa lo soke si 19.7 ogorun ni ọdun 1980. Awọn Fed raised rates interest to end inflation once and for all. O ṣẹda ipadasẹhin kan.
Ronald Reagan (1981-1988). Ni ọdun 1982, Reagan wole Ilana Ise ati ofin Garn-St.Germain lati dinku awọn ilana lori ifowopamọ ati awọn awin. O pọ si inawo ologun. Ni 1986, o ge ori. Awọn imugboroosi dinku iṣiro ibajẹ si 7.7 ogorun. Ni ọdun 1987, Black Monday gbe itọka si 10.1 ogorun.
George HW Bush (1988-1993). Ikọja S & L rán iwe-ipamọ aṣiṣe si 12.4 ogorun ni 1990. Bush ṣiwaju Stert Desert, mu iwe-itọka isalẹ si 10.3 ogorun.
Bill Clinton (1993-2001). NAFTA ṣe itesiwaju idagba, Clinton tun ṣe ifọwọsi Iṣowo Iṣura ti Ilana , Iṣe Ile- iwe si Ise , ati atunṣe atunṣe. Gbogbo awọn iṣe wọnyi ṣe igbelaruge idagbasoke aje, fifiranṣẹ awọn iṣiro irora si 6.0 ogorun nipasẹ ọdun 1998. Idawo bẹrẹ sii nyara, o nmu itọka sii si 7.3 ogorun nipasẹ opin ọdun ti o kẹhin Clinton ni ọfiisi.
George W. Bush (2001-2009). Ọdun naa ṣaaju ki Bush mu ọfiisi, awọn NASDAQ gba awọn igbasilẹ ti o gba silẹ. Nigba ti o ti nwaye, Bush jogun igbasilẹ. O dahun pẹlu awọn ọpa-ori Ilẹ-ori Bush . O dahun si awọn ijade 9/11 pẹlu Ogun lori Terror . Awọn ipalara naa fa wahala ti o pọju, eyiti o sọrọ pẹlu awọn ọdun-ori JGTRRA ti ọdun 2003 ati ofin Ìṣirò ọdun 2005. Ṣugbọn Iji lile Katrina fa fifalẹ idagbasoke. Ni ọdun 2008, idaamu iṣuna naa ti lu. Ṣugbọn itọnisọna naa wa ni idajọ 7.6 nipasẹ opin ọdun ti o kẹhin ọdun ti Bush ni ọfiisi nitori pe alainiṣẹ ko ti bẹrẹ escalating sibẹsibẹ.
Barrack Obama (2009-2017). Iwọn irora ti o pọ si 12.6 ogorun ni opin 2009, pelu ARRA ati afikun awọn anfani alainiṣẹ . Awọn aje naa ti mu larada daradara, ki o jẹ pe ni ọdun 2015 awọn itọka ti ṣubu si 5.7 ogorun. Pelu awọn nọmba ti o lagbara, awọn oludibo jade kuro ni ipade ti o ni idiyele ni idije idije 2016 .
Nọmba Iṣọnkọju Ko Ni Imuduro to Dara fun Economic Health
Ibajẹ iṣanjẹ kii jẹ aami atọkasi ti ilera aje nitori alainiṣẹ jẹ alafihan alakoso . Alainiṣẹ yoo tẹ awọn itọka soke paapaa lẹhin igbasilẹ ti pari.
Ni awọn ọdun mẹta akọkọ ti Ibanujẹ, itọka wa laarin 3.8-6.6 ogorun. Awọn aje ti ni adehun nipasẹ 8.5 ogorun ati 6.4 ogorun. Ṣugbọn awọn itọkasi ko ṣe afihan pe bi o tilẹ jẹ pe alainiṣẹ jẹ 15.8 ogorun nipasẹ 1931. Ti o ni nitori pe o jẹ aiṣedeede nipasẹ deflation . Awọn owo ti ṣubu bi iṣowo ile-ọrun ṣubu.
Bakannaa, itọka ti o wa ni iwọn 10 ogorun titi di 1942, awọn ọdun lẹhin Ipadii naa pari. Alainiṣẹ duro ni giga nigba ti awọn owo bẹrẹ si dide ni idahun si iṣaro akoko-ogun. Ṣugbọn awọn iṣowo naa nyọ, dagba ni awọn nọmba iye-nọmba.
Awọn itan ti awọn igbesi-aye-iṣẹ fihan pe ipinnu iṣiro wa ga lẹhin ti ọpọlọpọ ipadasẹhin pari. Wọn pẹlu awọn igba-iṣẹ ti 1945, 1949, 1957, 1990-1991, 2001 ati idaamu owo-aje 2008 . Atọka naa wa ninu awọn nọmba meji nipasẹ ọpọlọpọ awọn igba-iṣẹ ti 1970, 1973-1975, ati 1980-1981. O ti gbe nipasẹ iru iṣeduro ti a pe ni afikun owo-gbigbe
| Odun | Atọka Aṣiṣe | GDP idagbasoke | Ipadasẹhin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 3.8% | NA | Ibanujẹ |
| 1930 | 2.3% | -8.5% | |
| 1931 | 6.6% | -6.4% | |
| 1932 | 13.3% | -12.9% | |
| 1933 | 25.7% | -1.3% | |
| 1934 | 23.2% | 10.8% | |
| 1935 | 23.1% | 8.9% | |
| 1936 | 18.3% | 12.9% | |
| 1937 | 17.2% | 5.1% | |
| 1938 | 16.2% | -3.3% | |
| 1939 | 17.2% | 8.0% | Ibanujẹ |
| 1940 | 15.3% | 8.8% | |
| 1941 | 19.8% | 17.7% | |
| 1942 | 13.7% | 18.9% | |
| 1943 | 4.9% | 17.0% | |
| 1944 | 3.5% | 8.0% | |
| 1945 | 4.1% | -1.0% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1946 | 22.0% | -11.6% | |
| 1947 | 12.7% | -1.1% | |
| 1948 | 7.0% | 4.1% | |
| 1949 | 4.5% | -0.5% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1950 | 10.2% | 8.7% | |
| 1951 | 9.1% | 8.1% | |
| 1952 | 3.5% | 4.1% | |
| 1953 | 5.2% | 4.7% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1954 | 4.3% | -0.6% | |
| 1955 | 4.6% | 7.1% | |
| 1956 | 7.2% | 2.1% | |
| 1957 | 8.1% | 2.1% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1958 | 8.0% | -0.7% | |
| 1959 | 7.0% | 6.9% | |
| 1960 | 8.0% | 2.6% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1961 | 6.7% | 2.6% | |
| 1962 | 6.8% | 6.1% | |
| 1963 | 7.1% | 4.4% | |
| 1964 | 6.0% | 5.8% | |
| 1965 | 5.9% | 6.5% | |
| 1966 | 7.3% | 6.6% | |
| 1967 | 6.8% | 2.7% | |
| 1968 | 8.1% | 4.9% | |
| 1969 | 9.7% | 3.1% | |
| 1970 | 11.7% | 0.2% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1971 | 9.3% | 3.3% | |
| 1972 | 8.6% | 5.2% | |
| 1973 | 13.6% | 5.6% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1974 | 19.5% | -0.5% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1975 | 15.1% | -0.2% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1976 | 12.7% | 5.4% | |
| 1977 | 13.1% | 4.6% | |
| 1978 | 15.0% | 5.6% | |
| 1979 | 19.3% | 3.2% | |
| 1980 | 19.7% | -0.2% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1981 | 17.4% | 2.6% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1982 | 14.6% | -1.9% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1983 | 12.1% | 4.6% | |
| 1984 | 11.2% | 7.3% | |
| 1985 | 10.8% | 4.2% | |
| 1986 | 7.7% | 3.5% | |
| 1987 | 10.1% | 3.5% | |
| 1988 | 9.7% | 4.2% | |
| 1989 | 10.0% | 3.7% | |
| 1990 | 12.4% | 1.9% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1991 | 10.4% | -0.1% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 1992 | 10.3% | 3.6% | |
| 1993 | 9.2% | 2.7% | |
| 1994 | 8.2% | 4.0% | |
| 1995 | 8.1% | 2.7% | |
| 1996 | 8.7% | 3.8% | |
| 1997 | 6.4% | 4.5% | |
| 1998 | 6.0% | 4.5% | |
| 1999 | 6.7% | 4.7% | |
| 2000 | 7.3% | 4.1% | |
| 2001 | 7.3% | 1.0% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 2002 | 8.4% | 1.8% | |
| 2003 | 7.6% | 2.8% | |
| 2004 | 8.7% | 3.8% | |
| 2005 | 8.3% | 3.3% | |
| 2006 | 6.9% | 2.7% | |
| 2007 | 9.1% | 1.8% | |
| 2008 | 7.4% | -0.3% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 2009 | 12.6% | -2.8% | Ipadasẹhin |
| 2010 | 10.8% | 2.5% | |
| 2011 | 11.5% | 1.6% | |
| 2012 | 9.6% | 2.2% | |
| 2013 | 8.2% | 1.7% | |
| 2014 | 6.4% | 2.6% | |
| 2015 | 5.7% | 2.9% | |
| 2016 | 6.8% | 1,5% | |
| 2017 | 6.2% | na |